CFA Institute, the global association of investment professionals, has asked its global member base to gauge the likelihood of potential outcomes of a British exit (Brexit) from the EU. The purpose of the survey was to understand global investors’ views on the likely impact of United Kingdom’s vote to leave the European Union, following the referendum on 23 June 2016.
More than 2,000 investment professionals participated in the survey, with 50% of respondents based in the EMEA region. Among other questions, they were asked to indicate the likelihood of the following consequences of Brexit, in terms of their probability of occurrence by 2026:
UK fragmentation is rated as most likely, with 59% of respondents regarding it as more likely than not. More exits from the EU came next in the list with more than 48% of respondents seeing this as likely and just 26% thinking it unlikely. NATO disintegration was regarded as being the least likely outcome.
Most respondents expect the uncertainty following the referendum vote to last for up to six months (33%) or for between six and 12 months (25%), and a further 26% believe that the uncertainty may persist for up to two years.
Half of respondents also expect firms from their own local market to reduce their presence in the UK. Just 5% indicated that they thought firms from their local market might increase their presence in the UK.
In terms of the relative attractiveness of international financial centres, Frankfurt and Dublin are thought most likely to emerge as ‘winners’ from Brexit, with 69% and 62% of respondents picking them as likely beneficiaries. Most expect little change in the status of financial centres outside the EU. 82% of respondents expect London to be a loser as a consequence of Brexit.