Crédit Mutuel Asset Management: Humanoid robots: simple innovation or a paradigm shift?

By Marc ANIS HANNA, Credit and ESG Research Analyst, Crédit Mutuel Asset Management

Crédit Mutuel Asset Management is an asset management company of groupe La Française, the asset management branch of Crédit Mutuel Alliance Fédérale.

The race to develop humanoid robots is only just beginning. For investors, the challenge will be to identify the companies that can emerge as future leaders in this New Value chain, while assessing the technological, social and geopolitical risks that could determine the pace and scale of the development and adoption of these technologies.

Long regarded as little more than a technological curiosity, humanoid robots are now emerging as one of the defining industrial trends of 2026. Much like artificial intelligence (AI), they have the potential to transform the work environment by automating physical tasks, decision-making and routine activities. Humanoid robots are part of a broader wave of automation that is transforming both the cognitive and physical dimensions of work. The convergence of AI and robotics has far-reaching economic, social and geopolitical implications.

An emerging technology of strategic importance

The significance of humanoid robots lies not only in their human-like appearance, but in their ability to operate in environments designed for people, to handle a wide variety of objects and to perform tasks that remain challenging for conventional robots. They can therefore be deployed in factories and warehouses without requiring major infrastructure changes or costly retrofitting.

Yet the excitement surrounding the technology continues to be confronted with demanding industrial realities. Demonstrations are one thing, but mass production is another. Precision, safety, endurance and reliability remain major challenges. Until these hurdles are overcome, humanoid robots are likely to remain complementary tools rather than widespread substitutes for human workers.

Symbolic milestones

In April 2026, a humanoid robot completed the Beijing half-marathon in 50 minutes, compared with 2 hours and 40 minutes[1] for the winning robot in 2025. This achievement highlights the rapid progress being made in locomotion, balance and autonomous navigation.

Another notable demonstration came in May 2026, when Figure AI’s humanoid robots sorted more than 249K[2] packages continuously for 200 hours without any major incident. The trial illustrates how certain repetitive tasks can now be performed over extended periods with increasing levels of reliability.

Industry, the first major testing ground

The most credible near-term application for humanoid robots is industry, particularly in assembly, logistics and material handling. Renault has deployed Calvin, a robot developed with Wandercraft, at its Douai plant and plans to deploy 350[3] humanoid robots across its factories by 2027. BMW , after testing Figure 02 for 10 months, is now deploying 40 Figure 03 robots at its US plants[4]. The objective is to reduce physically demanding tasks, boost productivity and help address labor shortages.

A global race, with China in the lead

Investment in the sector is accelerating rapidly. China is preparing a fund designed to mobilise nearly €120bn[5] over the Next 20 years for robotics and AI. With close to 150 companies accounting for 90%[6] of global humanoid robot production, China currently appears to be leading the sector. In fact, Morgan Stanley has raised its forecast for humanoid robot deliveries in China in 2026, from 14K to 50K6.

Beijing regards humanoid robotics as a strategic technology, alongside AI, batteries and electric vehicles. China’s advantage lies in its highly developed industrial ecosystem, extensive supplier base and strong government support.

The US remains firmly in the race, with Tesla and Boston Dynamics among the key players. Tesla has announced $20bn5 of investment in AI and robotics, spearheaded by its flagship Optimus humanoid.

Japan is also stepping up its efforts, driven by a severe demographic challenge, with 10 million[7] job vacancies expected by 2030. The country is investing heavily, around $6bn7, in AI applied to the physical world, with the goal of deploying 10 million7 “intelligent” robots by 2040.

Europe, by contrast, is lagging behind in physical AI, Software AG platforms and access to large-scale funding. As the adoption of humanoid robots increases, driven by a sharp decline in production costs, from €1m five years ago to less than €50K[8] today, data sovereignty is becoming a critical issue. These robots continuously collect images and sounds, feeding increasingly sophisticated AI models. Without a strong sovereign industrial and cloud ecosystem, Europe risks seeing this data captured and exploited by foreign players. Other powers have already moved. The Trump administration for example recently banned the import of “advanced robotic devices”, arguing that they pose “unacceptable risks to national security”.

The social impact: a political challenge

Humanoid robots do not get sick, retire or take breaks, and some can even replace their own batteries. This prospect is fueling concerns about employment and, by extension, the funding of social welfare systems. Robotics represent an industrial revolution comparable to that brought about by the automobile. Its development is driven by several powerful structural trends all putting pressure on improving productivity and increasing competition. According to a recent estimate, as many as 1 billion[9] humanoid robots could be deployed worldwide by 2050.

But the debate cannot be reduced to the potential destruction of jobs alone. In the short term, companies are primarily highlighting the benefits of reducing physically demanding work, improving workplace safety and boosting productivity. The real social challenge will be how these productivity gains are distributed. Will they primarily Benefit companies, consumers, shareholders or will employees also Benefit through better working conditions and higher wages