Original-Research: Semperit AG Holding (von NuWays AG): BUY

Classification of NuWays AG to Semperit AG Holding

Company Name :	Semperit AG Holding
ISIN:	AT0000785555
Reason for the research:	Update
Recommendation:	BUY
Target price:	EUR 23.50
Target price on sight of:	12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst:	Sarah Hellemann

Second guidance hike carried by strong Q3 operating EBITDA; PT up

Yesterday, Semperit announced another guidance hike, carried by a stronger-than-anticipated operating EBITDA for Q3. In detail:

Q3 EBITDA well ahead of expectations. Semperit reported preliminary Q3 EBITDA of c. € 27m, up 26.5% yoy and well above our estimate of € 18.8m. The beat was mainly driven by stronger sales. Pricing normalised more slowly than expected as the company defended its margins in customer negotiations, and material costs weighed less on the P&L than anticipated. Adjusting for project costs of c. € 1m (eNuW), operating EBITDA should come in at c. € 28m (eNuW).

Impairment weighs on EBIT. Alongside the preliminary figures, Semperit announced a one-off, non-cash impairment of c. € 8m related to assets and liabilities now classified as held for sale. The stronger operating performance should partly offset this charge, but we still expect Q3 EBIT of € 6.6m (eNuW), down 28% yoy.

FY26 guidance raised for the second time. On the back of the strong Q3, Semperit now guides for FY26 operating EBITDA of c. € 115m. That is € 15m above the c. € 100m it guided in July and € 20m above its original guidance of € 95m. Notably, management flagged limited visibility on order intake for the final weeks of the year, as many customers continue to order at short notice.

Q4 also set to beat. The new guidance implies Q4 operating EBITDA of some € 18m, above our previous estimate of € 16.7m. In our view, this signals that management expects better outcomes from negotiations than we had assumed, which should support both sales and margins. We now model Q4 sales of € 198m (previously € 193m), up 10.7% yoy, and an operating EBITDA margin of 9.1% (previously 8.6%), down 6.2pp yoy against a strong comparable margin.

Estimates raised. Reflecting the stronger Q3 and a higher Q4 contribution of € 18.1m (eNuW), we raise our FY26e operating EBITDA to € 115m (previously € 105m). The Q3 impairment weighs on EBIT, but the stronger operating performance more than offsets it. We now expect FY26e EBIT of € 52.4m (previously € 50.5m).

Exceptional year in the making. FY26e is shaping up to be an exceptionally strong year, with the highest earnings since FY21 and, based on our FY26e EPS of € 1.51, a resumption of dividend payments. Part of this strength comes from windfall profits related to raw material price volatility and is therefore one-off in nature. Still, with a leaner cost base and a second guidance raise within a few months, Semperit ’s turnaround is clearly gaining traction.

BUY confirmed, PT raised to € 23.5 (previously € 22) based on DCF.

You can download the research here: semperit-ag-holding-2026-10-13-update-en-81dac
For additional information visit our website: https://www.nuways-ag.com/research

Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
Linkedin : https://www. Linkedin .com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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