Hot Topics

The US economy is not slowing down, it’s getting close to full employment
We are a little bemused following the latest US Employment report. The headline figure of +38,000 jobs for May (expected: +160,000) disappointed the market, with Treasuries rallying and a June/July rate hike off the table in most economists’ views. A decline in...
Beware of activist investors?
Like it or not activist investors are here to stay and are radically changing the business landscape By IMD Professor Nuno Fernandes Nuno Fernandes Activist investors are relatively new – but very influential – players in international capital markets. Activist...
Alternatives to broken duration
s a consequence of the historically low yields offered by developed market government bonds, the traditional role of duration as a natural counterbalance to equity beta is not efficiently working for multi-asset managers today. The low yields in renowned 'safehaven'...
Presidential distraction
There is now clarity who will contest this year’s US presidential race. Unfortunately, that may be the only thing clear in a campaign which has set new standards for unpredictability. Donald Trump's candidacy was met with derision a year ago. Until his rivals quit,...
Brexit can be avoided
Our base-case remains Brexit can be avoided, given the unlikelihood of wanting to risk weaker ties with our main trading partner and a diluted relationship with the US and other third-parties using the UK to access the Single Market. Inertia could also play a part...
Equity Income sector must evolve
The IA has launched a consultation into the criteria for UK Equity Income sector membership. This follows the removal of several funds from the sector over the last few months – including Evenlode. At Evenlode, we think an income fund works best when it delivers...
Redington named New Growth Firm of Last 20 Years
Redington has been named the New Growth Firm of the Last 20 Years at Financial News' prestigious 20th Anniversary Awards for Excellence in European Finance. Since it was founded in 2006 by Dawid KonoteyAhulu and Robert Gardner, Redington has earned widespread...
The end of the bond barbell?
Bond market sectors are becoming increasingly correlated—and this is bad news for fixed income investors seeking to manage risk through sector diversification. Using monthly return correlations over a 3yr horizon, the correlation between treasuries and US IG credit...
Cosy arrangements with reality for Brexit supporters
In order to reassure voters, Brexit supporters advance two main arguments. The first consists in stating that the uncertainty linked to the exit from the European Union will be short-lived and will only marginally affect the UK economy. The second, central to...
S&P Global Market Intelligence: Basel mortgage floors could slash capital ratios at Dutch banks
Dutch banks could see their capital ratios significantly eroded under proposed new global rules on estimating the riskiness of mortgage loans, S&P Global Market Intelligence calculations show. ABN AMRO Group NV would lose more than 450 basis pointsfrom...
A golden age for aviation
The global aviation industry is widely regarded as on the cusp of a golden period of growth. Aviation has seen sustained growth through all economic cycles and currently generates around $600bn of GDP per year, which is forecast to rise to $1trn by 2026. In the...
Pendulum swung too far
Traditionally, equity people are supposed to be more optimistic than bond people, but I am prepared to buck the stereotype. I am not about to argue we stand on the brink of savage correction, but it is fair to say that I am a little circumspect. The marketpendulum...
Market wrong on Europe
Our conversations with a broad range of businesses across Europe suggest a more buoyant economy than the current negative consensus view. In particular, our meetings with banks across the region testified to a more positive outlook than generally accepted. Themacroeconomic...
Barry Norris takes full control of Argonaut Capital
Argonaut Capital founder Barry Norris has assumed full ownership of the specialist European equity manager. Formed as a JV between the Argonaut founders and Britannic Asset Management (later Resolution then Ignis) in 2005, a passive minority stake in Argonaut was...
Oil drop has not boosted growth
Eoin Murray Traditionally we have believed oil price declines would provide a net positive boost for the world economy, the balance between a negative effect on the growth of exporters more than offset by a positive effect for importers. Instead, we have seen...