Hot Topics

Article 50: What's next for investors?
On the day the UK Prime Minister Theresa May triggers Article 50, beginning a two-year process that will see the country leave the European Union (EU), Azad Zangana, Senior European Economist, and Keith Wade, Chief Economist, comment on what they expect now for...
ECB should not tighten policy for a long time
Willem Verhagen The reaction function of the G3 central banks over the past few years can be summarised as a vastly underwhelming response to an improvement in the data. The reason for this is that these central banks aim to enhance a positive feedback loopwhereby...
BNY: ringing the Brexit bell
The United Kingdom government’s triggering of Article 50 is undoubtedly a ‘milestone’ of historic significance, but it is only the start of the next stage of the process by which the UK and the European Union (EU) thrash out the terms of their ‘divorce’. There...
Why US stock market pull back is justified
Columbia Threadneedle reduces weighting to US equities from neutral to underweight in multi-asset portfolios Global equity markets are near all-time highs, bond markets are relatively calm, and currency volatility is reasonably low. This benign state is being...
A lot of momentum
Maarten-Jan Bakkum Brazil, one of the best markets in 2016, has clearly underperformed in the last few weeks. Meanwhile, we are getting closer to the moment of truth: far-reaching reforms to the Brazilian pension system in order to make the government budgetand...
CFA survey reveils fear for geopolitical risks
CFA Institute, the global association of investment professionals, surveyed its global member base in February to gauge the impact of current political uncertainties on the asset management industry. The survey of almost 1,500 investment professionals from...
Investor relief at Dutch election blow to populists
As markets heave a sigh of relief at Geert Wilders' defeat in the Dutch election, political uncertainty persists as attention shifts to France. But we see bright prospects for equities as the economic backdrop improves. Sam Twidale, European Equities Fund Manager:...
How can investors navigate European politics and US monetary policy?
Philippe Roset, Head of SPDR ETF's Netherlands at State Street Global Advisors Philippe Roset The last fortnight has featured two items of particular interest: 1) a returned focus on the US Federal Reserve (Fed); and 2) (at last) some market reaction to...
Pimco: The Case for ECB Tapering
Based purely on the European Central Bank’s (ECB) latest inflation forecasts of 1.3% for 2017, 1.5% for 2018 and 1.7% for 2019 (these are year-over-year forecasts for Europe’s Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices), logic would appear to suggest the ECB should maintain...
Joachim Fels (PIMCO): lower US interest rates could be a drama
By Joachim Fels, PIMCO global economic advisor “Then the phone rang.” This is the last sentence of The Undoing Project by Michael Lewis, and I recommend that you also read all the other sentences in this book. It’s the story of the friendship between psychologists...
Market Response to Trump’s Speech Doesn’t Change Policymaking Realities
Libby Cantrill, Head of Public Policy van PIMCO The market’s overwhelmingly favorable reaction to President Trump’s first speech to a joint session of Congress was not necessarily surprising: President Trump veered away from the more protectionist and nationalistic...
No equity market 'bubble' today
Laurence Taylor The battle between the bulls and bears is heating up once again, with much of the basis for this ongoing conflict surrounding equity valuations and whether they offer any upside to investors, or merely just risk. Do we see a bubble in equityvaluations...
The rise of the reverse Yankee
Fraser Lundie Yankee bonds, issued in the US by a foreign government or company, have been a mainstay of the US fixed income market for decades. But in recent years, more US companies have been doing the reverse: issuing debt in Europe. As a result, the so-called...
US politics take us on a remarkable ride
Author: Sebastiaan Reinders, Lead Portfolio Manager US High Yield at NN Investment Partners Investors have been on a remarkable ride since Trump’s election in November last year. With equity markets up more than 10% and 10-year Treasury yields up more than 50...
GDP is dead. Long live ‘happiness’
IMD Professor Arturo Bris on the new objectives of economic policy Arturo Bris The modern concept of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was developed by economist Simon Kuznets in 1934. Since then, and especially after the Bretton Woods Accords, GDP has been theaccepted...